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Galaxy Securities: Domestic policies may continue to increase, and metal prices are expected to go up. china galaxy Securities said that on the demand side, the domestic package of economic incremental policies played a significant role. In November, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.30%, which was in the expansion range for two consecutive months, and the expansion pace was slightly accelerated. The domestic central economic work conference is just around the corner, and it is expected to put forward more positive incremental policy instructions for the economy next year, continue to raise the expectation of macro-recovery, and benefit the rise of copper prices. In addition, the new non-agricultural data in November in the United States reflected that the negative impact of hurricanes and strikes dissipated, but the number of new jobs in the first two months was revised up and the unemployment rate rose, which made the market worry about weak employment. After the data was released, traders increased their bets on the Fed's interest rate cut in December. It is expected that the possibility of the Fed's interest rate cut in December will rise from 67% before the report was released to 85%, and now it has risen to 86%. However, China's central bank once again increased its holdings of gold by nearly 5 tons after half a year in November, indicating that the logic and willingness of global central banks to increase their holdings of gold are still there in the current geopolitical turmoil. The expected warming of interest rate cuts, the central bank's continued increase in gold holdings, and the recent short-term martial law in South Korea and the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine are expected to jointly support the price of gold.In early trading, the main domestic futures contracts rose almost across the board, with coke and glass rising by over 5%, BR rubber and coking coal rising by over 4%, screw thread and soda ash rising by over 3%, iron ore rising by nearly 3%, and hot coil, polyvinyl chloride (PVC), para-xylene (PX), PTA, Shanghai Bank, Shanghai Tin, rapeseed meal and SC crude oil rising by over 2%. In terms of decline, asphalt and low sulfur fuel oil (LU) declined slightly.The number of bonus-themed ETFs has increased from 10 billion to two managers, both of whom are Huatai Bairui. The Politburo meeting has once again triggered the discussion of switching market funds to large-cap blue chips, and the scale of dividend-themed ETFs has quietly reached a new high. The latest scale shows that the scale of 49 dividend-themed ETFs in the whole market exceeds 90 billion. Among them, Huatai Bairui dividend low-wave ETF reached 10.409 billion yuan. Since the beginning of this year, its scale and share have increased by over 7.8 billion yuan and 6.5 billion copies respectively, making it the second dividend-themed ETF that broke through 10 billion yuan. On the previous trading day, the scale of Huatai Berry dividend ETF exceeded 20 billion, becoming the first 20 billion dividend ETF in China. At present, the total scale of five dividend-themed ETF products under Huatai Bairui exceeds 32.6 billion yuan.

Yardeni, Wall Street Strategist: The Federal Reserve should keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting. Yardeni Research believes that at the upcoming FOMC meeting, US policymakers should keep interest rates unchanged and assess the economic situation. "Policy committees should take time to see how the economy will evolve in the coming months after Trump wins the election," strategists such as Ed Yardeni said in the report. Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, asserted at the last meeting that policymakers "can't (or won't) model the new government's fiscal policy before it is implemented". Although the impact of tariffs and tax cuts is still uncertain, the basic view is that inflation is still too high, real GDP growth is strong, and the labor market is close to full employment, which is likely to contradict the relaxation of monetary policy.Wuliangye Group signed a memorandum of cooperation with Gan Lu Wine Group of Chile, and on December 5th, Wuliangye Group signed a memorandum of cooperation with Gan Lu Wine Group of Chile. Chile Gan Lu Wine Group is the largest wine production group in South America, with its brand footprints in Chile, Argentina and the United States, and its sales covering 147 countries and regions around the world. This signing indicates that Wuliangye and Gan Lu Wine Group of Chile have further established a long-term and stable partnership.Debon Securities: Pay attention to the investment opportunities in the fields of liquor, beer and leisure snacks. Debon Securities Research Report pointed out that 1) Liquor: The dealer conference will set the tone for next year, giving priority to the opportunities of low-value leading layout. Recently, wine companies have intensively held dealer meetings to set the tone for next year's growth. At present, wine enterprises are generally rational and pragmatic, and reasonable speed reduction reduces the burden on channels. With a series of economic policies, the consumption of enterprises and residents is expected to pick up in 2025. The competitiveness of head enterprises has been further enhanced through continuous evolution, so it is suggested to grasp the investment opportunities with low expectations at present. 2) Beer: The overall performance of the third quarterly report is under pressure due to the weak recovery of demand and weather, but it is expected that the ton price of major beer enterprises will maintain a steady and rising trend throughout the year. With the introduction of a series of policies to stimulate consumption, terminal demand is expected to improve, and the recovery of ready-to-drink scenes such as catering is expected to promote the upgrading and continuation of beer structure. 3) Leisure snacks: The performance of leisure snack enterprises is further differentiated, and the performance of high-potential targets is optimistic in the peak season. In the third quarter, the performance of leisure and snack enterprises was divided, and the growth toughness of high-potential enterprises remained the same. The follow-up Spring Festival peak season is expected to bring the possibility of exceeding expectations. At present, the level of income profit rate of head enterprises is expected to remain stable.

Galaxy Securities: When the IP layout of "Millet Economy" was carried out, the china galaxy Securities Research Report indicated that "Millet Economy" was highly prosperous, and high-quality IP was the key. In 2024, IP products will continue to maintain a high degree of popularity, from Xiaoma Baolika brand in the first half of the year to Guzi store and Jellycat pop-up shop since the third quarter, with strong market demand. It is believed that IP creation is the core of "millet" and tide play consumption, and the influence of IP plays an important role in attracting fans and integrating multiple formats. As the key to accumulate users and break the circle of products, high-quality IP can attract consumers and extend the product life cycle. Therefore, in the current environment of high market attention and strong demand, the high prosperity of high-quality IP products is expected to be maintained. It is suggested to follow up on two tracks: the track with stable performance foundation or obvious supply-side recovery, and the track with high cost performance, and the elastic variety with incremental dimension or improvement of external factors: 1) Hong Kong stock Internet: the profit improvement expectation of Head Internet Company is strengthened, and the cost performance of investment is prominent. It is suggested to pay attention to Tencent Holdings, which has steady growth in various businesses and stable fundamentals, and the Internet video platform company, which turned losses for the first time in a single quarter and continuously improved its profitability. 2) Publishing industry: The publishing industry will accelerate the development of digitalization, personalization, customization and intelligence, and the new amount of AI+ publishing and research business will bring new opportunities to the industry, and the market value management of central enterprises will be included in the assessment. It is suggested to pay attention to: Shandong Publishing and Southern Media, which are stable in fundamentals and have certain business incremental space; 3) Cinema & Game Industry: High-quality content is always a scarce resource in the industry. It is suggested to pay attention to the game and cinema companies under AI empowerment: Shenzhou Taiyue, Bona Film, WANDA CINEMAS and so on, which have rich content reserves. 4) With regard to IP derivatives, it is recommended to pay attention to POP MART, the leader of the IP craze retail market.CITIC Securities: Short-term home fundamentals are expected to usher in a window of policy improvement, and we can bargain and seize the opportunity of valuation repair. CITIC Securities recently reported that the situation in the light industry has been severe since 2024, but it still presents three bright spots: channel reconstruction of the personal care industry, internationalization of the tobacco industry and asset integration of the metal packaging industry. The above-mentioned opportunities for subdividing the track are expected to continue and be further strengthened in 2025. Short-term home fundamentals are expected to usher in a policy improvement window, which can be laid out on dips, seize the opportunity of valuation repair, pay attention to industry demand and policy continuity, and attach importance to reasonable valuation intervals. In 2025, the papermaking and paper packaging industries will benefit from the recovery of consumption.CITIC Securities: Scientific and Technological Progress+Policy Expectation The Internet sector is both offensive and defensive. According to CITIC Securities Research Report, the the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting on December 9, 2024 pointed out that a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy should be implemented next year, and consumption should be greatly boosted, investment efficiency should be improved, and domestic demand should be expanded in all directions. We believe that the valuation of the Internet sector has reflected the current conservative expectations, and the strong shareholder returns provide sufficient margin of safety, while the performance of the sector is expected to benefit significantly from the macro improvement, which will bring about a double-click on performance and valuation, with emphasis on recommending pro-cyclical sectors, such as e-commerce, local life, travel, freight, online recruitment, real estate service platforms, etc. Content-based companies focus on the pace of quality content supply and valuation improvement. In the long run, Internet companies lead domestic technological innovation, and artificial intelligence and autonomous driving are expected to contribute to the increase. We suggest focusing on leading Internet companies with pro-cyclical, stable competitive advantage, low valuation and stable shareholder returns.